Secular Outlook for Global Growth: The Next 20 Years

Author: Dirk Hofschire

Slower economic growth is expected to result in less of a tailwind for equities

From our partners in the US

Highlights

  • The Fidelity Asset Allocation Research team’s secular gross domestic product (GDP) growth framework is a proprietary, dynamic approach, serving as a foundation for developing long-term capital market assumptions for asset class returns.
  • Global growth is expected to be 2.1% over the next 20 years, down from 2.7% for the previous 20 years, with the United States averaging 1.8% annually and developing economies likely to register the highest GDP growth rates.
  • Even though demographic constraints are set to dampen global growth prospects, other secular trends, including artificial intelligence technologies, may boost productivity in some countries.

 

Read the article

Authors
Dirk Hofschire
Senior Vice-President, Asset Allocation Research
Dirk Hofschire is Senior Vice-President, Asset Allocation Research, in the Global Asset Allocation group at Fidelity Investments. In this role, he is a member of the Asset Allocation Research team, which conducts economic, fundamental and quantitative research to develop asset allocation recommendations for Fidelity’s portfolio managers and investment teams.

Mr. Hofschire joined Fidelity in 2000 as a senior portfolio analyst. Most recently he led the Market Analysis, Research and Education group within Fidelity Management & Research Company, which he created in 2005 to provide timely updates on trends in the economy and financial markets. Before joining Fidelity, Mr. Hofschire was a foreign service officer with the U.S. Department of State.
Read more
Related content
Five Questions into 2026
The GAA team answers your biggest questions and shares top insights for 2026.
Offering niche alpha and diversification
Convertible arbitrage can offer asset allocators the opportunity to diversify traditional and alternative exposures, tap into idiosyncratic sources of alpha, and potentially take advantage of market volatility.
Webcast – Charting the course: CIO outlook for 2026
Andrew Marchese, Fidelity Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager, analyzes the macro outlook and market dynamics that may shape the investment environment in 2026. Join Andrew as he discusses his key considerations for portfolio strategy and risk assessment in a shifting landscape.

Insights library